Market review
July to September 2026
Compute market review: Q3 2026
Looking back at July to September 2026: buyers raised spending while short of capacity, newer GPUs rented for more, and compute futures went under CFTC review.
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Insights
Research notes, market reviews and full reports from Rillor. Every article has a web version and a full research report with its sources, which you can read online or download as a PDF.
- Articles, each with a full report
- 10
- Pages of research in PDF
- 164
- Market reviews, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026
- 5
Featured
Research report
Cross-venue price discovery: regulated crude futures and on-chain perpetuals
Rillor tested whether CME WTI futures lead an on-chain crude perpetual. The lead held out of sample; no net edge after execution costs reached statistical significance.
Methods note
Evidence classes in GPU pricing
Evidence about a GPU system's price comes in six classes, from specification to verified transaction, and mixing them misleads valuations and indexes.
All research
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10 articles
Methods note
Measuring AI agents in simulated auctions
How to test LLM agents as bidders: induced values, known efficient outcomes, measures read from bids alone and human reference agents built from published experiments.
Market review
July to September 2026
Compute market review: Q3 2026
Looking back at July to September 2026: buyers raised spending while short of capacity, newer GPUs rented for more, and compute futures went under CFTC review.
Market review
April to June 2026
Compute market review: Q2 2026
Looking back at April to June 2026: capital spending plans rose, memory became the cost to watch, H100 rents split by tier and exchanges announced GPU futures plans.
Market review
January to March 2026
Compute market review: Q1 2026
Looking back at January to March 2026: GPU rental capacity sold out across generations, and one-year H100 contract prices rose almost 40% from their October low.
Market review
October to December 2025
Compute market review: Q4 2025
Looking back at October to December 2025: buyers committed to GB300 systems at scale while powered buildings and grid capacity set the pace of deployment.
Market review
July to September 2025
Compute market review: Q3 2025
Looking back at July to September 2025: posted H100 rents drifted lower while buyers signed multi-year capacity contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.
Research report
Cross-venue price discovery: regulated crude futures and on-chain perpetuals
Rillor tested whether CME WTI futures lead an on-chain crude perpetual. The lead held out of sample; no net edge after execution costs reached statistical significance.
Methods note
Evidence classes in GPU pricing
Evidence about a GPU system's price comes in six classes, from specification to verified transaction, and mixing them misleads valuations and indexes.
Methods note
From rule text to a checkable model
A worked example on SEC Rule 201: fields extracted by an LLM and tied to exact phrases, reviewed by a person, then checked against a stated property.
Research report
July 2023 to October 2026
Neocloud economics: contract first, hardware second
Filings show GPU cloud operators sign customers before buying hardware, then borrow against those contracts at interest rates set by the customer's credit.
Compute market review
Each review covers one period of the market for AI compute. They are listed in order of the period covered.
July to September 2025
Compute market review: Q3 2025
October to December 2025
Compute market review: Q4 2025
January to March 2026
Compute market review: Q1 2026
April to June 2026
Compute market review: Q2 2026
July to September 2026
Compute market review: Q3 2026
Notices
Rillor is not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor and does not provide investment or trading advice. Research, forecasts, data and software described on this site are for research and engineering use. Nothing here is an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity interest or digital asset. Past or simulated results do not indicate future results.
NVIDIA, AMD and related product names are trademarks of their owners and are used only to identify products. No affiliation or endorsement is implied.