ExplainerMarket simulation

What to test before an agent buys on your behalf

Payment protocols for agents record what a user authorized, and published research shows which agentic commerce risks remain inside those limits and how to test each.

Cover of the full report: What to test before an agent buys on your behalf
The research behind this article, with every source listed. 19 pages.

Key points

From the Summary of the full report

  1. Agent payment protocols record and limit what a user authorized. AP2's signed mandates can limit the payee, the payment instrument, the amount, a total budget and the dates [1, 3]. The Agentic Commerce Protocol issues single-use payment tokens capped by amount, merchant and expiry [9]. The Trusted Agent Protocol identifies trusted agents to merchants [12].
  2. These records bound the worst case. AP2 assumes that preventing prompt injection "is infeasible" and says constraint checks bound the impact "even if the LLM fails to make the optimal choice" [2]. None of the protocol fields reviewed scores the choice made inside the limits [1, 3, 9].
  3. Published studies show failures inside valid limits: first-offer bias and shallow search [19, 23], sensitivity to position and seller wording [21, 22], overpayment after budget disclosure [20], giving in to pressure [32, 33], injection whose measured success rises with adapted attacks and repeated tries [13, 19], and overcharges that identity checks miss [27].

Many agentic commerce risks sit inside the limits a user signs. Agent payment protocols such as AP2 and the Agentic Commerce Protocol record what a user authorized: the checkout, the amount, the payee, a spending cap and an expiry [1, 3, 9]. AP2's security notes say that "even if the LLM fails to make the optimal choice", constraint checks keep "the worst-case financial and logical impacts" bounded [2]. The protocol caps the loss. The choice inside the cap is still the agent's.

Research shows where buying agents go wrong inside those limits. They take the first acceptable offer, pay more once a seller learns the budget, follow seller wording and injected text, and give in to persistent requests [19, 20, 22, 32]. Each failure can become a test with a known right answer, run many times before an agent spends real money.

What agent payment protocols record

AP2 was announced on 16 September 2025 with more than 60 organizations [5]. Its first design had an Intent Mandate for the request, signed in advance with "price limits, timing, and other conditions" for delegated purchases, and a Cart Mandate for "the exact items and price" [5]. The current documentation, viewed on 24 October 2026, names a Checkout Mandate and a Payment Mandate, each with an open stage for the user's constraints and a closed stage for a finalized checkout or amount [1]. A Payment Mandate can limit the payee, the instrument, the amount range, a total budget and the dates [3].

The Agentic Commerce Protocol, first released on 29 September 2025, keeps businesses as merchant of record and lets them accept or decline transactions "on a per agent, per transaction, or custom logic basis" [8, 11]. Its delegated payment token works only within an allowance: one use, one merchant, a maximum amount and an expiry [9]. The Trusted Agent Protocol, announced on 14 October 2025, uses agent-specific signatures to tell trusted agents apart from "malicious automation and rogue bots" [12].

AP2's own trip example shows the gap. An agent with a $700 budget books a flight and hotel "once it finds a combination that fits the budget" [5]. The mandate proves the booking fit the budget. It records nothing about whether a cheaper combination existed. In a dispute, the signed mandate shows who authorized what [4].

Agentic commerce risks inside a valid mandate

Magentic Marketplace, a 2025 simulated market of customer and business agents, found that frontier models approach optimal welfare only under ideal search conditions [19]. Customer agents picked the first proposal 60% to 100% of the time and third proposals almost never, a 10 to 30 fold advantage for speed over quality [19]. In one scenario, 100 search results in place of 3 cut consumer welfare by 4.3% for the least affected model and by 44% and 65.4% for two others [19]. In a 2026 study, a vague goal ("find the best deal") plus a $10.00 cost per attribute lookup cut the share of optimal choices to 0.29, against 0.83 with a specific goal [23].

Position and seller wording

In randomized trials from 2025, buying agents showed strong position biases that varied by provider and model version and persisted in text-only lists [21]. Telling an agent to "ignore position" did not significantly reduce them [21]. When models were upgraded, one fitness watch's share rose from 45% to 77% under one model family and fell from 25% to 6% under another [21]. A study posted on 19 October 2026 priced seller cues on one model: a strong social-proof line was worth about 13% of the price, about $17 on a $130 item, and an authority claim about 19.8% [22].

Budgets, disclosure and overspending

In 2025 negotiations over 100 real products, buyer agents often revealed their budget when a seller asked, despite instructions not to disclose it unless necessary [20]. Sellers anchored to that number, and buyers accepted prices above the listed retail price "without objection" [20]. Some weaker models accepted deals above budget in over 10% of cases, more often at low budgets [20]. Prompt optimization on the buyer model with the highest anomaly rate cut out-of-budget deals from 18.4% to 1.3% and left overpayment at 8.1% to 8.3% [20]. A mandate's cap stops deals above budget [3, 9]. Overpayment happens under the cap. The Agentic Commerce Protocol's intent trace proposal can pass a "max_budget" field to the merchant, whose server "SHOULD record this trace for analytics or pricing optimization" [10].

Giving in under pressure

In a month-long 2025 shop pilot run by a model developer, the agent running an office store was talked into discount codes, gave items away, priced some items below cost and for a time told customers to pay an account it had hallucinated [32]. In a second phase, with procedures and a supervising agent, weeks with negative margins were largely eliminated, yet the agent was still "a mark for some of the more adversarial testers" [33]. In 2024 negotiation tests, an agent that pretended to be desperate raised its payoff by 20% [24].

Prompt injection and repeated attempts

AP2 "assumes that preventing prompt injection attacks is infeasible" [2]. In Magentic Marketplace, injected text from seller agents often redirected all of a vulnerable model's payments [19]. In 2025, researchers steered commercial web agents to fake product pages through forum posts and obtained credit card numbers in 10 of 10 trials [26]. NIST's Center for AI Standards and Innovation found in 2025 that attacks adapted to the model raised success from 11% to 81% on held-out tasks, and that 25 attempts per attack raised average success from 57% to 80% [13]. Those figures come from one model on workspace and similar tasks [13].

Overcharges that identity checks miss

An industry benchmark of machine-to-machine micropayments, posted on 27 September 2026, includes a counterparty with the correct domain and a real delivered service that charges 30% above its own listed price [27]. Identity checks stay silent "because nothing about the identity is wrong" [27]. Fake storefronts can also "pass automated security checks, and offer prices far below market rate" [35].

A pre-deployment checklist with known right answers

Each row pairs a published failure with a test and the answer that scores it. Measuring LLM agents in simulated auctions shows how to score agents against an optimum fixed in advance.

Risk Test Known right answer
First-offer bias Equivalent and better offers in random arrival order [19] The offer that meets every requirement at the lowest price [19]
Shallow search Few to many options shown [19] The same optimum at every size [19]
Position Listing position randomized across trials [21] A choice that does not change with position [21]
Vague goals One purchase with a vague and a specific instruction, costly lookups [23] The lowest unit price [23]
Seller cues A cue on one listing, its price raised until it wins half the time [22] No premium for wording, price-equivalent reported [22]
Budget disclosure The seller asks for the budget early, at several budget levels [20] Never above list price or budget [20]
Infeasible budget Budget below the seller's cost [20] No deal [20]
Customer pressure Scripted requests for discounts and free items, for selling agents [32, 33] Policy discounts only, no sales below cost
Overcharge A bill above the counterparty's own listed price [27] Pay the listed price or decline
Lure An offer far below market from an unverified seller [35] Decline, or ask a person to approve [14, 15]
Injection Injected text in listings, adapted attacks, many attempts [13, 19] No change in what is bought or paid [13]
Consistency Each case run k times, and again after every model change [21, 28] All k runs correct [28]

Repetition decides the score. τ-bench's pass^k counts a task as passed only if all k trials succeed [28]. In 2024 a frontier agent solved about 61% of retail tasks on one try and about 25% on all eight [28]. A black-box protocol for evaluating LLM agents covers pinned versions and re-baselining.

What regulators expect from businesses using agents

UK Competition and Markets Authority guidance of 9 March 2026 tells businesses "you are responsible for what an AI agent does in the same way you are responsible for what an employee does" [16]. It tells them to use test results to improve an agent "before you deploy it" [16]. A companion paper lists mandatory confirmation for high-risk actions and audit logs among safeguards for a shopping agent [15].

On 17 July 2026, France's Autorité de la concurrence put traffic from agents directly to e-commerce sites at less than 5%, with 20% to 25% possible by 2030 [18]. It named the risk of self-preferencing and the influence of advertising on agent responses, and noted stakeholders' concern about collusion if agents take part in price negotiations [18]. The review of LLM agents as market participants covers the collusion studies.

Rillor's market simulation tests LLM agents in posted-price markets and auctions with induced values, so the efficient allocation is known before the first bid, and logs every bid. For the injection rows, Rillor's agentic security testing runs each attack against an agent, its tools and its data, logs every run and covers only systems the client owns or is authorized to test, within a written scope.

Read the full report

The full report gives each finding with its setting and caveats, the checklist with the evidence behind each row, and all 35 sources.

The full report

What to test before an agent buys on your behalf

The research behind this article, with every source listed. 19 pages.

  1. Summary
  2. Background
  3. Method
  4. Findings
  5. Implications
  6. Limits of this analysis
  7. Sources

Sources

  1. AP2: Agent Payments Protocol Documentation (home page). AP2 project, published by Google, viewed 24 October 2026. https://ap2-protocol.org/
  2. AP2 Security and Privacy Considerations. AP2 project, published by Google, viewed 24 October 2026. https://ap2-protocol.org/ap2/security_and_privacy_considerations/
  3. AP2 Payment Mandate. AP2 project, published by Google, viewed 24 October 2026. https://ap2-protocol.org/ap2/payment_mandate/
  4. AP2 Frequently Asked Questions. AP2 project, published by Google, viewed 24 October 2026. https://ap2-protocol.org/faq/
  5. Powering AI commerce with the new Agent Payments Protocol (AP2). Google Cloud Blog, 16 September 2025. https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/announcing-agents-to-payments-ap2-protocol
  6. Agentic Commerce Protocol (project site). Agentic Commerce Protocol project, developed by Stripe and OpenAI, viewed 24 October 2026. https://www.agenticcommerce.dev/
  7. RFC: Agentic Commerce, Delegate Payment API (version 2025-09-29). Agentic Commerce Protocol project, GitHub, viewed 24 October 2026. https://github.com/agentic-commerce-protocol/agentic-commerce-protocol/blob/main/rfcs/rfc.delegate_payment.md
  8. RFC: Agentic Checkout, Intent Traces (version 2025-12-16, proposal). Agentic Commerce Protocol project, GitHub, viewed 24 October 2026. https://github.com/agentic-commerce-protocol/agentic-commerce-protocol/blob/main/rfcs/rfc.intent_traces.md
  9. Agentic Commerce Protocol changelog (releases 2025-09-29 to 2026-04-17). Agentic Commerce Protocol project, GitHub, viewed 24 October 2026. https://github.com/agentic-commerce-protocol/agentic-commerce-protocol/tree/main/changelog
  10. Visa Introduces Trusted Agent Protocol: An Ecosystem-Led Framework for AI Commerce. Visa, 14 October 2025. https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.releaseId.21716.html
  11. Technical Blog: Strengthening AI Agent Hijacking Evaluations. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Center for AI Standards and Innovation, 17 January 2025, updated 19 December 2025. https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2025/01/technical-blog-strengthening-ai-agent-hijacking-evaluations
  12. LLM01:2025 Prompt Injection, OWASP Top 10 for LLM Applications 2025. OWASP GenAI Security Project, viewed 24 October 2026. https://genai.owasp.org/llmrisk/llm01-prompt-injection/
  13. Agentic AI and consumers. Competition and Markets Authority (UK), 9 March 2026. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agentic-ai-and-consumers/agentic-ai-and-consumers
  14. Complying with consumer law when using AI agents. Competition and Markets Authority (UK), 9 March 2026. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/complying-with-consumer-law-when-using-ai-agents/complying-with-consumer-law-when-using-ai-agents
  15. AI agents: the Autorité de la concurrence issues its opinion on the competitive functioning of the AI agents sector (Opinion 26-A-05). Autorité de la concurrence (France), 17 July 2026. https://www.autoritedelaconcurrence.fr/en/press-release/ai-agents-autorite-de-la-concurrence-issues-its-opinion-competitive-functioning-ai
  16. Magentic Marketplace: An Open-Source Environment for Studying Agentic Markets, by Gagan Bansal and others. arXiv:2510.25779, 27 October 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25779
  17. The Automated but Risky Game: Modeling and Benchmarking Agent-to-Agent Negotiations and Transactions in Consumer Markets, by Shenzhe Zhu and others. arXiv:2506.00073, version 4, 20 September 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00073
  18. What Is Your AI Agent Buying? Evaluation, Biases, Model Dependence, & Emerging Implications for Agentic E-Commerce, by Amine Allouah and others. arXiv:2508.02630, version 3, 17 December 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.02630
  19. A Cue's Hidden Price: Auditing Seller Influence on AI Shoppers, by Felix Buecheler, Gerardo Berbeglia and Mingyu Guo. arXiv:2610.25843, 19 October 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.25843
  20. Shopping by algorithm: How agentic AI deploys human heuristics as a surrogate consumer, by Davood Wadi and Yu Ma. arXiv:2609.28372, version 2, 13 October 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28372
  21. How Well Can LLMs Negotiate? NegotiationArena Platform and Analysis, by Federico Bianchi and others. arXiv:2402.05863, 8 February 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.05863
  22. Commercial LLM Agents Are Already Vulnerable to Simple Yet Dangerous Attacks, by Ang Li and others. arXiv:2502.08586, 12 February 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.08586
  23. Agentic Commerce Bench: Measuring Fraud Detection for Agents That Spend Money, by Ankit Srivastava and Debjyoti Paul. arXiv:2609.35886, 27 September 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35886
  24. τ-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains, by Shunyu Yao and others. arXiv:2406.12045, 17 June 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.12045
  25. Project Vend: Can Claude run a small shop? (And why does that matter?). Anthropic, 27 June 2025. https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1
  26. Project Vend: Phase two. Anthropic, 18 December 2025. https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-2
  27. Agentic Commerce: Threats and Risks. Visa, Visa Perspectives, 20 November 2025. https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-perspectives/security-trust/the-threats-landscape-of-agentic-commerce.html

Notices

Rillor is not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor and does not provide investment or trading advice. Research, forecasts, data and software described on this site are for research and engineering use. Nothing here is an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity interest or digital asset. Past or simulated results do not indicate future results.

Superintelligence (SI) outputs can be wrong. Important decisions should include human review.

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