Cross-referencing public Q1 OEM disclosures with private allocation chatter, the Q3 2026 demand picture has at least two surprises. HGX B200 allocation is tighter than the consensus narrative. The secondary market clears at premium quickly and forward curves have steepened. HGX B300, by contrast, has loosened in select tier-2 channels as hyperscalers pushed first-shipments out by a quarter.
The implication for buyers is that the right SKU to forward-buy for Q3 is the B200, not the B300, despite the newer chip getting all the press. The implication for OEMs is that B200 allocation discipline is paying off, and that B300 allocations need an active demand-side, which is where forward visibility starts to matter.
We'll publish the underlying allocation models alongside the next quarterly piece.